- Gold rallies as investors turn to safety amid worsening geopolitical tensions.
- Weak US labor market data reignites speculation of early Fed rate cuts further driving Gold higher.
- Gold price enters a short-term uptrend with the bias favoring long-holders.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades almost a percentage point higher in the $2,360s on Friday. The precious metal rises as increasing geopolitical tensions over Gaza solidify its safe-haven appeal.
The upside also results from concerns over the US labor market due to recent data, which have sparked speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates sooner than previously expected, increasing the attractiveness of the non-yielding precious metal.
Gold price rises on end of peace talks, US labor market concerns
Gold price rises due to its safe-haven appeal as peace talks between Hamas and Israel in Cairo break down and Israeli armor and military personnel amass around the city of Rafah, the last major urban center in Gaza not reduced to rubble.
The US, meanwhile, is withholding shipments of weapons and military aid to Israel after President Biden warned the country against mounting a full-scale attack on Rafah. Despite the warning, reports have come in of strikes to a mosque and several houses in the city, leading to the deaths of over a dozen people, including women and children, according to Reuters.
US Jobless Claims surprise to the upside
In the US, further evidence of a weakening labor market has reanimated expectations the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates sooner than previously thought.
US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of May 3, released on Thursday, showed a higher-than-expected 231,000 rise when 210,000 had been expected from an upwardly revised 209,000 in the previous week.
This comes on the back of a Nonfarm Payrolls report that showed below-estimated readings for April in almost all key metrics measured.
The data suggests the US economy is struggling under the weight of the currently high interest rates environment and increases speculation the Fed may move to cut rates sooner than previously thought.
Commentary from Federal Reserve officials, however – most recently from Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – has leaned hawkish, with both arguing that inflationary pressures remain too high to consider reducing interest rates.
Major central banks mark a shift in stance
Globally most central banks are either cutting interest rates or signaling a willingness, leading to an environment in which interest rates appear to be peaking and declining – a positive for Gold.
On Wednesday, Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates for the first time since 2016, and the number of Bank of England (BoE) officials voting to cut rates on Thursday increased. At its March meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also opted to cut interest rates.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has all but guaranteed it will cut interest rates in June, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) accompanied its decision to hold interest rates steady at the last meeting, with dovish rhetoric.
Technical Analysis: Gold price breaks higher, beginning short-term uptrend
Gold price (XAU/USD) has broken through the ceiling of a mini-range and rallied sharply.
A reversal in the sequence of peaks and troughs on the 4-hour time frame chart now suggests the precious metal is in a short-term uptrend, which is biased to extend higher.
XAU/USD 4-hour Chart
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is overbought, suggesting Gold may be overstretched and could be at risk of a pullback. A move down into neutral territory again would give a sell signal and indicate more clearly a correction. In the meantime, the advice for long-holders is not to add to their positions.
That said, the uptrend remains in progress and the price keeps pushing higher.
The next target to the upside for Gold is at around $2,400, roughly at the height of the April highs.
The bullish trend on both the medium and long-term charts (daily and weekly), overall add a supportive backdrop for Gold.
Insights into Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central Banks and Gold Reserves
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Gold Prices
The price of Gold can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while a higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Most moves in Gold prices depend on how the US Dollar behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Gold rallies as investors turn to safety amid worsening geopolitical tensions.
- Weak US labor market data reignites speculation of early Fed rate cuts further driving Gold higher.
- Gold price enters a short-term uptrend with the bias favoring long-holders.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades almost a percentage point higher in the $2,360s on Friday. The precious metal rises as increasing geopolitical tensions over Gaza solidify its safe-haven appeal.
The upside also results from concerns over the US labor market due to recent data, which have sparked speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates sooner than previously expected, increasing the attractiveness of the non-yielding precious metal.
Gold price rises on end of peace talks, US labor market concerns
Gold price rises due to its safe-haven appeal as peace talks between Hamas and Israel in Cairo break down and Israeli armor and military personnel amass around the city of Rafah, the last major urban center in Gaza not reduced to rubble.
The US, meanwhile, is withholding shipments of weapons and military aid to Israel after President Biden warned the country against mounting a full-scale attack on Rafah. Despite the warning, reports have come in of strikes to a mosque and several houses in the city, leading to the deaths of over a dozen people, including women and children, according to Reuters.
US Jobless Claims surprise to the upside
In the US, further evidence of a weakening labor market has reanimated expectations the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates sooner than previously thought.
US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of May 3, released on Thursday, showed a higher-than-expected 231,000 rise when 210,000 had been expected from an upwardly revised 209,000 in the previous week.
This comes on the back of a Nonfarm Payrolls report that showed below-estimated readings for April in almost all key metrics measured.
The data suggests the US economy is struggling under the weight of the currently high interest rates environment and increases speculation the Fed may move to cut rates sooner than previously thought.
Commentary from Federal Reserve officials, however – most recently from Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – has leaned hawkish, with both arguing that inflationary pressures remain too high to consider reducing interest rates.
Major central banks mark a shift in stance
Globally most central banks are either cutting interest rates or signaling a willingness, leading to an environment in which interest rates appear to be peaking and declining – a positive for Gold.
On Wednesday, Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates for the first time since 2016, and the number of Bank of England (BoE) officials voting to cut rates on Thursday increased. At its March meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also opted to cut interest rates.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has all but guaranteed it will cut interest rates in June, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) accompanied its decision to hold interest rates steady at the last meeting, with dovish rhetoric.
Technical Analysis: Gold price breaks higher, beginning short-term uptrend
Gold price (XAU/USD) has broken through the ceiling of a mini-range and rallied sharply.
A reversal in the sequence of peaks and troughs on the 4-hour time frame chart now suggests the precious metal is in a short-term uptrend, which is biased to extend higher.
XAU/USD 4-hour Chart
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is overbought, suggesting Gold may be overstretched and could be at risk of a pullback. A move down into neutral territory again would give a sell signal and indicate more clearly a correction. In the meantime, the advice for long-holders is not to add to their positions.
That said, the uptrend remains in progress and the price keeps pushing higher.
The next target to the upside for Gold is at around $2,400, roughly at the height of the April highs.
The bullish trend on both the medium and long-term charts (daily and weekly), overall add a supportive backdrop for Gold.
Insights into Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central Banks and Gold Reserves
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Gold Prices
The price of Gold can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while a higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Most moves in Gold prices depend on how the US Dollar behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
