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Gold prices have been on the rise for quite a while. In fact, since last October, the spot price of gold has climbed from about $1,800 per ounce to over $2,300 today — a 28% increase. (It even surpassed the $2,400 mark in May).
For those who bought gold last year, it has meant a steady rise in value — and a solid return on investment. Will that trend continue through this June, though? Here’s what you should know.
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Will the price of gold climb in June? Experts weigh in
Here’s what experts say is in the cards for gold prices as we head into the summer.
Gold prices could increase
Some experts think gold prices could increase in June.
“We are in a healthy uptrend with gold finding strong support at $2,300,” says Adam Butler, senior account executive at Anthem Gold Group. “I think we will continue in an uptrend, potentially closing June above $2,450.”
It largely depends on inflation and what the Federal Reserve does in response, though, experts say. The central bank is working to get inflation down to 2% (it was 3.4% in April) and has been keeping interest rates high to help achieve that goal.
“Fed officials indicated that it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving to 2%,” says Jack Brown, owner of Mid-states Recycling and Refining, a precious metals refinery in Des Plaines, Illinois. “This delay could result in a trending increase in metal prices through the latter part of July and into the fall.”
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It may have peaked already
Others think that gold prices might have hit their highest point already — and that a leveling off or decline is in the cards.
“Even though the price of gold is still near an all-time high and has made large gains over the past 12 months, prices may have peaked in the short-term,” Stuart Boxenbaum, president of Statewide Financial Group, says.
The recent price gains may also inspire more gold investors to sell in the coming months, according to Russell Shor, senior market specialist at trading platforms FXCM Markets and Tradu.
“June may be weaker as market participants take profit,” Shor says. “It was trading off its highs into month-end. That may mean a pullback in the yellow metal is due.”
The price will likely remain high for a bit
Even if gold prices have peaked or are poised for a fall, experts don’t expect a steep decline by any means.
“I see gold prices remaining high, although likely a little choppier because of the uptrend near its peak recently,” Boxenbaum says. “It’s probably unlikely we will see any large change in the price of gold in June.”
To see a big decline in the price of gold, economic conditions would need to shift more significantly, which Boxenbaum doesn’t expect will happen for at least several months.
“We would need to see significantly lower budget deficits, which isn’t likely to happen during our current presidential administration,” Boxenbaum says. “Also, we would need price reductions in other key items such as oil and food prices. Unfortunately, this is also unlikely to happen anytime soon.”
Again, inflation and Fed moves will determine the ultimate trajectory of gold prices. Should inflation remain high, more investors are likely to buy gold, as it’s often seen as a solid inflationary hedge. If inflation falls, interest in gold — and gold prices — will likely fall.
“Inflation has been in the 17% per year range for three years and counting, so it is unlikely that inflation will fall anytime soon,” Boxenbaum says. “This will keep prices of gold in the high range.”
The bottom line
If you’re not sure whether it’s the right time to buy gold for your portfolio, you may want to talk to a financial professional or advisor. They can also help you determine how much to buy (most recommend no more than 5 to 10% of your portfolio) and what method to use. You may want to consider purchasing physical gold, opening a gold IRA, or buying gold stocks or ETFs, depending on your goals and appetite for risk.
Additional Insight:
Gold prices are impacted by various factors, including economic conditions, inflation rates, Federal Reserve policies, and global events. Historically, gold has been considered a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or inflationary pressures. Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against inflation, which can drive up the demand and prices for the precious metal. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and market volatility can also influence the price of gold. It is important for investors to closely monitor these factors when making decisions about buying or selling gold.
