Key points:
- Fed’s Daly says cenbank likely on track for more rate cuts
- Gold industry sees prices rising to $2,941/oz over 12 months
- Benchmark 10-year note yields slipped to over one week low
Gold prices extended gains to a second session on Wednesday, driven by weaker equities and bond yields, while traders eagerly await U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s timeline on a potential rate reduction.
Spot gold GOLD was up 0.5% at $2,675.25 per ounce, as of 1033 GMT, and trading about $10 below a record high of $2,685.42 scaled last month. U.S. gold futures GOLD gained 0.5% to $2,691.90.
“Seems the gold market wants to see a record high, with prices marginally below the late-September record high with support coming from a slightly risk-off environment with equities down,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Safe-haven bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a low interest rate environment and during economic and geopolitical turmoil.
“The uncertainty surrounding U.S. elections and geopolitical tensions will also support gold going forward,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari.
The benchmark 10-year note yields US10Y slipped to more than a one-week low, making non-yielding gold more attractive.
Market participants are keeping a keen eye on U.S. retail sales, industrial production and weekly jobless claims data, due on Thursday.
Gold needs a stronger-than-expected data to change the rate-cut trajectory, but this should still boost investment demand and drive prices to a record high in the coming months, UBS’ Staunovo said.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the central bank remains on track for more cuts this year as long as data meets expectations.
Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual gathering predicted gold prices would rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months and silver prices would jump to $45 per ounce.
Spot silver XAGUSD1! firmed 1.1% to $31.83. Platinum PL1! rose 0.6% to $990.05 and palladium XPDUSD1! was up 0.6% to $1,015.75.
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) will launch platinum and palladium futures in Q1 2025, according to the producers’ council.
### Factors Driving Gold Prices
The recent increase in gold prices can be attributed to weaker equities and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for safe-haven investments like gold. The anticipation of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s potential rate reduction decisions are also key factors influencing gold prices.
### Market Outlook and Projections
Analysts predict a bullish trend for gold, with expectations of prices reaching $2,941 per ounce over the next 12 months. Additionally, silver prices are forecasted to rise to $45 per ounce, indicating positive momentum in the precious metals market.
### Potential Impact of Economic Data
Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and weekly jobless claims data to assess the trajectory of gold prices. Any stronger-than-expected data could potentially alter the rate-cut path but may still contribute to increased investment demand for gold.
### Insights from Federal Reserve and Industry Experts
Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly’s indication of more rate cuts aligns with market expectations, emphasizing the importance of economic data in shaping future monetary policies. Similarly, industry experts at the London Bullion Market Association foresee favorable conditions for gold and silver prices in the coming months.
### Expansion of Futures Market
The upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in Q1 2025 reflects growing interest and opportunities in the precious metals sector. This development could provide additional avenues for investors to engage in trading these commodities.